Vanessa Bates Ramirez
March 19, 2020
This article originally appeared on Singularity Hub, a publication of Singularity University.
We are in the midst of a public health crisis. Life has been put on hold. The places we always go to have closed, the events we look forward to have been canceled, some of us have even lost our jobs or are living in fear of losing them.
Although it may not seem like it at first glance, there is a silver lining in every evil; this crisis brings out the worst in some people (toilet paper hoarders, I'm talking about you) and the best in others. Italians under quarantine are singing together, Spaniards are playing sports together, an entrepreneur is handcrafting a respirator and putting it on YouTube, and volunteers in Italy are 3D printing medical valves for virus treatment at a much lower cost.
Indeed, if you want to believe that there is still hope for humanity, instead of thinking that as a species we are rapidly becoming evil itself, just look at these examples. I am sure there are others. There is plenty of hope and opportunity in this crisis if you look for it.
Peter Xing , vice president of technology and growth initiatives at KPMG and a speaker and author on new technologies, agrees. Xing thinks the coronavirus pandemic presents us with many opportunities to increase automation and deliver products and services remotely. "The glass half full right now is the budding digital transformation ecosystem," he says.
In a thought-provoking talk at Singularity University's COVID-19 virtual summit, Xing painted a landscape of what the future could be like, explaining how the pandemic will accelerate our trajectory towards a heavily automated society.
Facing Famine
You have probably seen the empty shelves in the supermarket. Whether you're in the paper products section, frozen foods or fresh fruit and vegetables, you've noticed something strange: The shelves are empty! One of the strangest things people stock up on in a panic is toilet paper.
Xing describes this toilet paper shortage as a prisoner's dilemma, and points out that this scarcity problem is not about supply, but about our mindset. "It's a prisoner's dilemma, because right now we are all prisoners in our homes and we have two choices, to stock up or not to stock up. And the consequences of that depend on how cooperative we are with each other," he says. "But it's a zero-sum game."
Xing cites a CNN article on why, of all things, toilet paper is the most eagerly purchased (I, too, have been stunned by this). Who knows, maybe there would be less panic if we knew more about the production methods and supply chain of toilet paper. As it turns out, it's a highly automated process (you can learn more about itby watching this National Geographic documentary ) and requires very few people (although it does require about 27,000 trees a day. So stop stockpiling!).
The limit here in the supply chain is on the raw material side; we obviously can't cut so many trees forever. But despite all the toilet paper that today is being carted out of grocery stores in overstuffed shopping carts and stacked in the trunks and back seats of cars, thanks to automation, there will be no shortage of toilet paper in grocery stores in the short term.
Now we have a good reason to apply this level of automation to almost everything.
According to Xing, the current situation will force us to use robots and automated systems sooner than expected, while saving us money and creating opportunities. He gives the example of "fast-casual" restaurants.
In addition to the cost of food, when you factor in the time spent cooking, shopping and clearing the table after meals, people in the US now spend far more money eating at home than they do at fast-casual restaurants. According to a study by investment management firm ARK Invest, when all these costs are taken into account, a home-cooked meal costs $12.
That's the same or more expensive than grabbing a burrito or sandwich from the corner kiosk. As the repetitive and low-skill tasks involved in the preparation of fast casual meals become automated, their costs will drop even further, making home cooking even more pointless. (What these estimates fail to take into account, however, is that eating at home is often better for your health, since you're not pouring sugar, fat and flavor-enhancing, health-destroying ingredients into your food. And some of us enjoy cooking and eating at home uniquely).
Now that we don't touch anyone or anything that others touch, but still need to eat, it's tempting (perhaps even necessary) to automate food preparation. Some of the home caterers offer contactless delivery, meaning that customers can opt to have food delivered to their doorstep.
"This is a good opportunity to automate delivery," says Xing, in addition to automation in restaurants. This is where delivery drones, robots and autonomous trucks and vans could come in. Indeed, the use of delivery drones has increased dramatically since the outbreak in China.
Speaking of delivery, the number of service robots at Amazon has been steadily increasing; as of the end of 2019, the company employed around 650,000 people and around 200,000 robots, and costs have steadily fallen as the number of robots has increased.
According toARKInvest's research, automation could add $800 billion to US GDP over the next 5 years and $12 trillion over 15 years. On this trajectory, GDP would be 40 percent higher than before, thanks to automation.
Automating Ourselves?
This is all well and good, but what do these numbers and percentages mean for the average consumer, worker or citizen?
"The benefits of automation don't trickle down to the average citizen," says Xing, "they trickle down to the shareholders of the companies that create the automation." This is where policies like universal basic income and universal health care come in; in the not-too-distant future, we may see a move towards measures like these (depending on the election results) that take the benefits of automation out of the hands of a few wealthy individuals and distribute them across the board.
In the meantime, however, some people may benefit unexpectedly from automation. We are currently in the midst of possibly the largest experiment in remote working and distance learning in history. Tools like Slack, Zoom, Dropbox and Gsuite, which allow us to communicate and collaborate digitally, are enabling remote work that would not have been possible 10 years ago.
In addition, says Xing, tools like DataRobot and H2O.ai are democratizing AI by enabling almost anyone, not just data scientists or computer engineers, to use machine learning algorithms. Humans code the steps of repetitive processes in their own jobs and computers take over.
As 3D printers become cheaper, more accessible and widespread, people are finding other applications for the technology (e.g. the Italians, mentioned above, who found a way to cheaply produce the medical valve used to treat the coronavirus).
Source of Inventions
This move towards a more automated society has positive aspects: It keeps us healthy in times like the current one, lowers the price of goods and services, and increases GDP in the long run. But by leaning too much on automation, are we also preparing for a future in which we are physically, psychologically and emotionally distanced from each other?
There is a crisis right now and we are going overboard. We are locked in our homes, social distancing rules, trying not to touch each other. For many of us this is really difficult and unpleasant. We are waiting for this situation to end as soon as possible.
Whatever happens, this pandemic will probably accelerate our transition to automation in many sectors and processes. The solutions that people will implement during this crisis won't suddenly disappear when things return to normal (and depending on who you talk to, they may never disappear).
But let's not forget this. Even when robots make our food and drones deliver it, when computers do our data entry and answer our emails for us, and when we all have 3D printers in our homes where we can make whatever we want, we will still be human. People like the closeness of each other. We like to actually see each other's faces, hear each other's voices, touch each other, not through an app screen.
Automation cannot change that, and beyond cutting costs and increasing GDP, our biggest and most important responsibility will always be to take care of each other.